Unanimous decision. Every judge scored the bout for Louis Smolka.
Scorecards as recorded by UFC Stats · source ↗ · fighter attribution derived from the recorded result, not assumed from score order · how this is built
Market
Market data unavailable
No market observation could be sourced for this bout.
Round-by-Round Analysis
Fight progression reconstructed from verified round-level observations.
Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00
Louis SmolkaRound 3Alptekin Ozkilic
54 / 113Sig. strikes12 / 55
48%Accuracy22%
57 / 116Total strikes12 / 55
0Knockdowns0
0 / 1Takedowns3 / 5
1Sub. attempts0
1:34Control0:36
10.8Pace / min2.4
72%Control share28%
Louis Smolka
Targethead 94% · body 2% · leg 4%
Phasedistance 57% · clinch 11% · ground 31%
Alptekin Ozkilic
Targethead 92% · body 0% · leg 8%
Phasedistance 83% · clinch 17% · ground 0%
Statistical signals
Output edgeLouis Smolka landed 54 significant strikes to 12.Striking edgeLouis Smolka struck at 48% accuracy to 22%.
Descriptive only. These compare recorded output; they are not judge scores and do not say who won the round.
What changed from R2
Pace upLouis Smolka's significant-strike pace moved +145% from R2 to R3, 10.8 against 4.4 per minute.
Accuracy shiftLouis Smolka's significant-strike accuracy moved +22 pts, 48% against 26%.
Target shiftLouis Smolka's head share of landed strikes moved +35 pts, to 94% head with 2% body and 4% leg.
Phase shiftLouis Smolka's ground share of landed strikes moved +27 pts, to 31% on the ground against 57% at distance.
Control swingLouis Smolka's control time moved +89s, 94s against 5s.
Pace downAlptekin Ozkilic's significant-strike pace moved -54% from R2 to R3, 2.4 against 5.2 per minute.
Accuracy shiftAlptekin Ozkilic's significant-strike accuracy moved -15 pts, 22% against 37%.
Target shiftAlptekin Ozkilic's head share of landed strikes moved +19 pts, to 92% head with 0% body and 8% leg.
Defensive driftAlptekin Ozkilic absorbed significant strikes +145% faster than in R2, 10.8 against 4.4 per minute.
Observed fight vs historical Fight DNA
Compares this fight against each fighter's pre-fight Fight DNA baseline. Shown only where the historical sample supports it.
Louis Smolka
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Two fighter histories. One matchup-specific intelligence layer. Fight DNA compares relevant historical characteristics from each fighter — stance interaction, pace, finish patterns, round progression and context — rather than treating career averages as isolated numbers. Every observation below traces to stored evidence with its sample and confidence.
PBE derivedPBE DerivedCalculated by PropBetEdge from normalized event, bout and round-level source records using a versioned Fight DNA definition. It is not an official UFC statistic, is not simply copied from a source page, and is not a prediction.Definitionversioned Fight DNA registrySampleshown beside every numberConfidencetier set by the sampleAs ofsnapshot datePBE Derived explained →What does confidence mean?Calculated by PropBetEdge from both fighters' normalized fight records. Not an official UFC statistic and not a prediction. How Matchup DNA works →
ConfidenceConfidenceConfidence reflects the amount of supporting sample for this metric. It does not mean PropBetEdge is predicting the fighter will reproduce the number in the next fight.Thresholds are the definition v1 rules recorded in the Fight DNA contract; they are applied by the builder, not by this page.Highlarger supporting sampleMediumuseful but still limited sampleLowsmall sample — interpret carefullyInsufficientnot enough observed evidence to publish the metricConfidence tiers explained →What does confidence mean?
result DNA liveArchive sample · Louis Smolka: 0 completed / 0 with round stats · Alptekin Ozkilic: 1 completed / 1 with round stats
Louis Smolka vs Orthodox opponents
Stance interaction: Louis Smolka's archived results against opponents listed with Alptekin Ozkilic's stance. Historical split, not causation.
Stance interaction: Alptekin Ozkilic's archived results against opponents listed with Louis Smolka's stance. Historical split, not causation.
PBE derived
—Record1 appearance · low
Supported paired profile
Each fighter's stored metric side by side, with its own sample and confidence. Bars compare magnitude only.
Louis Smolka · left · Alptekin Ozkilic · right
—insufficientFinish rateFinish rate of winsThe percentage of recorded wins ending by KO/TKO or submission rather than decision.A percentage of wins, not of all bouts.A fighter with two wins and two finishes shows 100%. Read the sample beside it.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?insufficient0%
—insufficientKO/TKO share of winsKO/TKO share of winsThe percentage of recorded wins that came by knockout or technical knockout.A percentage of wins.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?insufficient0%
—insufficientSubmission share of winsSubmission share of winsThe percentage of recorded wins that came by submission.A percentage of wins.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?insufficient0%
—insufficientSig. strikes landed / minSignificant strikes landed per minuteOffensive striking pace normalized by observed fight time: how many significant strikes this fighter landed for every minute the round stats cover.Per minute of observed, stat-covered fight time.More volume is not automatically better. Accuracy, defense, position and opponent context matter too.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low1.80/min
—insufficientSig. strikes absorbed / minSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteHow many significant strikes opponents landed on this fighter for each observed minute.Per minute of observed, stat-covered fight time.This is exposure, not a complete measure of defense. A high-pace fighter can absorb more simply by being in more exchanges.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low2.20/min
—insufficientSig. strike accuracySignificant strike accuracyThe share of significant-strike attempts that landed.A percentage of this fighter's own attempts.Accuracy rises when a fighter throws less and picks shots; read it together with pace.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low23%
—insufficientSig. strike defenseSignificant strike defenseThe share of opponents' significant-strike attempts that did not land.A percentage of the opponents' attempts.Defense counts avoided attempts, not damage. It says nothing about the strikes that did get through.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low54%
—insufficientHead attack shareHead attack shareThe share of this fighter's significant-strike attempts aimed at the head.A share of this fighter's own significant-strike attempts, so the six shares describe where the offense went, not how much landed.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low79%
—insufficientBody attack shareBody attack shareThe share of this fighter's significant-strike attempts aimed at the body.A share of this fighter's own significant-strike attempts, so the six shares describe where the offense went, not how much landed.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low13%
—insufficientLeg attack shareLeg attack shareThe share of this fighter's significant-strike attempts aimed at the legs.A share of this fighter's own significant-strike attempts, so the six shares describe where the offense went, not how much landed.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low8%
—insufficientDistance attack shareDistance attack shareThe share of this fighter's significant-strike attempts thrown at distance (on the feet, not in the clinch).A share of this fighter's own significant-strike attempts, so the six shares describe where the offense went, not how much landed.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low84%
—insufficientClinch attack shareClinch attack shareThe share of this fighter's significant-strike attempts thrown in the clinch.A share of this fighter's own significant-strike attempts, so the six shares describe where the offense went, not how much landed.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low3%
—insufficientGround attack shareGround attack shareThe share of this fighter's significant-strike attempts thrown on the ground.A share of this fighter's own significant-strike attempts, so the six shares describe where the offense went, not how much landed.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low14%
—insufficientKnockdowns / 15 minKnockdowns per 15 minutesKnockdowns scored, normalized to 15 minutes of observed fight time.Normalized to 15 minutes of observed fight time (the length of a standard three-round bout).Knockdowns are rare events; small samples move this number a lot.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low0.00/15
—insufficientTakedown attempts / 15 minTakedown attempts per 15 minutesTakedown activity normalized to the length of a standard three-round UFC fight.Normalized to 15 minutes of observed fight time (the length of a standard three-round bout).Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low3.00/15
—insufficientTakedown accuracyTakedown accuracyThe share of takedown attempts that were completed.A percentage of this fighter's own attempts.A fighter who rarely shoots can post a high accuracy from a handful of attempts.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low100%
—insufficientControl seconds / takedownControl time per takedownHow much recorded control time followed each successful takedown.Seconds of control for every takedown landed.Control time is recorded per round by the source; it is not split by position or by who initiated the grappling.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low127s/TD
—insufficientSubmission attempts / 15 minSubmission attempts per 15 minutesSubmission attempts normalized to 15 minutes of observed fight time.Normalized to 15 minutes of observed fight time (the length of a standard three-round bout).Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 3 rd · 15 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low0.00/15
—insufficientR2 pace retentionRound-two pace retentionRound-two significant-strike attempt pace divided by round-one pace, over bouts where both rounds are covered. 100% means round two matched round one.A ratio shown as a percentage of the round-one pace.Only bouts with both rounds covered count, so early finishes are excluded by construction.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 2 rd · 10 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low194%
—insufficientR3 pace retentionRound-three pace retentionRound-three significant-strike attempt pace divided by round-one pace, over bouts where both rounds are covered.A ratio shown as a percentage of the round-one pace.Only bouts that reached round three with stats count.Left sample—Right sample1 bout · 2 rd · 10 minLearn more →What does confidence mean?low388%
Round-stat coverage
The matchup has result/finish/stance history, but detailed striking, target, pace and grappling comparisons are withheld until both fighters have archived round observations.
Missing round data is never rendered as a zero and no comparison is inferred from current-career snapshots.
Strongest supported observations
Emitted only when the underlying metric clears its sample threshold; otherwise it lands in the counter-case column.
No additional observation clears its sample threshold yet. The supported profile above remains available.
Counter-case and missing data
What the record cannot support for this pairing, stated instead of hidden.
Louis Smolka: no Fight DNA snapshot; side a is null in every comparison and no a-side insight is emitted.
Louis Smolka: no Fight DNA snapshot; no stance history vs orthodox opponents.
Alptekin Ozkilic vs orthodox opponents: 1 appearance, confidence low; needs >= 3 appearances and confidence >= low. No stance insight emitted.
Alptekin Ozkilic pace_retention_r3_vs_r1: confidence low (1 bout / 2 rounds / 10.0 min); needs >= 2 stat-covered bouts and confidence >= low. No pace insight emitted.
Head attack share: Louis Smolka metric not stored. Both sides need confidence >= low; no target share mismatch insight emitted.
Body attack share: Louis Smolka metric not stored. Both sides need confidence >= low; no target share mismatch insight emitted.
Leg attack share: Louis Smolka metric not stored. Both sides need confidence >= low; no target share mismatch insight emitted.
Distance attack share: Louis Smolka metric not stored. Both sides need confidence >= low; no phase share mismatch insight emitted.
Clinch attack share: Louis Smolka metric not stored. Both sides need confidence >= low; no phase share mismatch insight emitted.
Ground attack share: Louis Smolka metric not stored. Both sides need confidence >= low; no phase share mismatch insight emitted.
Takedown attempts / 15 min: Louis Smolka metric not stored. Both sides need confidence >= low; no grappling mismatch insight emitted.
Takedown accuracy: Louis Smolka metric not stored. Both sides need confidence >= low; no grappling mismatch insight emitted.
Control seconds / takedown: Louis Smolka metric not stored. Both sides need confidence >= low; no grappling mismatch insight emitted.
Submission attempts / 15 min: Louis Smolka metric not stored. Both sides need confidence >= low; no grappling mismatch insight emitted.
