Amir Albazi vs. Alessandro Costa: finish history meets a pace gap in Doha

Albazi is 17-3-0 overall and has gone 5-2 across seven completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive. Three of his five archived wins ended early: one by KO/TKO and two by submission, producing a 60% finish rate in those wins.

His recent results have moved in the other direction. After beating Costa by third-round KO/TKO, Albazi defeated Kai Kara-France by split decision over five rounds. He then lost five-round unanimous decisions to Brandon Moreno and Kyoji Horiguchi. The Horiguchi defeat came on February 7, 2026, leaving Albazi 287 days between appearances by fight night.

Costa, 17-5-0, has six wins and three losses through nine completed UFC bouts in the archive. Five of those six victories were finishes—four by KO/TKO and one by submission—for an 83% finish rate in archived wins. He has also been finished twice.

His current run is direct evidence of that volatility. Costa stopped Stewart Nicoll by second-round KO/TKO on April 4, Matt Schnell by first-round KO/TKO on June 6 and Cody Durden by second-round submission on July 11. He will enter the rematch 133 days removed from his latest fight.

The records therefore support an early-ending discussion, but not a certainty. Albazi has not been finished in his seven archived UFC bouts, and both of his archived losses reached the scorecards.

Costa owns the pace advantage

The clearest statistical separation is striking output. Costa lands 3.77 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy; Albazi lands 2.47 at 33%. That is a 1.3-strike-per-minute advantage for Costa.

In a three-round fight, that gap matters if the matchup remains at striking range. Costa’s higher output can accumulate into a scorecard argument, while Albazi would need to narrow the volume difference through effectiveness, damage or a change in where the fight takes place.

Their defensive numbers are closer. Albazi absorbs 3.88 significant strikes per minute with 59% striking defense. Costa absorbs 3.71 with 57% defense. Neither profile, on its own, removes the possibility of sustained exchanges.

The physical dimensions offer little separation. Albazi is 5-foot-5 with a 68-inch reach; Costa is 5-foot-4 with a 67-inch reach. Both fight orthodox. Albazi is listed at 125 pounds and Costa at 126, while their ages are 33 and 30, respectively.

Takedown defense could keep the fight standing

Albazi averages 1.18 takedowns per 15 minutes, compared with Costa’s 0.7. Their takedown accuracy is nearly identical—25% for Albazi and 26% for Costa—but the defensive gap is substantial.

Costa defends 87% of takedown attempts against him. Albazi’s rate is 62%. That 25-point difference is important because Costa’s defense could make it harder for Albazi to interrupt the faster striking pace or build extended grappling phases.

The archived round data adds context without settling the matchup. Across 21 rounds with statistics, Albazi landed 251 of 743 significant strikes, averaged 12 per round, completed eight of 32 takedowns, accumulated 24:38 of control time and recorded two knockdowns.

Costa’s sample covers 18 rounds. He landed 277 of 562 significant strikes, averaged 15.4 per round, completed four of 15 takedowns, recorded 6:35 of control time and scored four knockdowns.

Those samples are small and uneven. They are career-to-date PropSports snapshots at capture, not figures tailored to this bout or updated specifically for fight week. They should color the matchup rather than override the result history.

Bettor’s Edge: a finish signal, not a priced edge

The strongest market-relevant signal is the finishing pattern: Albazi has stopped three of his five archived UFC wins, while Costa has stopped five of six. Combined with Costa’s recent run and the fact that Albazi finished him once before, the archive points toward a fight less likely to reach the final bell than the typical flyweight bout.

What the evidence does not provide is a bet. No odds snapshot or model price exists in PropBetEdge data for this matchup. Without a line, there is no basis for saying the moneyline, fight-goes-distance, method-of-victory or round-betting markets offer value.

The counter-case begins with Albazi’s durability. He has no stoppage losses in the seven-fight archive, and his two defeats both went to decision. Costa’s 83% finish rate applies only to his archived wins; it does not mean 83% of all his fights end with him producing a stoppage. He has also been finished twice, which makes the method question two-sided rather than exclusively a Costa angle.

Fight week can materially change the read. The scheduled three-round format and card position should be confirmed. A missed weight or catchweight rebooking would alter the physical context. Once prices appear, a fight-goes-distance line moving against the finish-rate signal would be a reason to re-examine the evidence rather than assume the archive is more informative than the market.

Fight details and what to monitor

Albazi and Costa are scheduled for three rounds on the prelims at ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar. The announced event contains 11 bouts and is set for Saturday, November 21, 2026.

Until a price exists, the disciplined read is narrow: Costa brings the higher striking pace, the stronger takedown-defense rate and the more active recent finishing run; Albazi brings the prior head-to-head stoppage and an archived UFC record without a finish loss. Those facts connect logically to the moneyline, fight-goes-distance, method-of-victory and round-betting markets, but they do not establish value by themselves.

Matchup page: Amir Albazi vs. Alessandro Costa · Full card: UFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. Stirling · Fighter pages: Amir Albazi, Alessandro Costa.