Mauricio Ruffy's finishing rate is the number that matters against Arman Tsarukyan

The setup

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 lands on Saturday, September 19, 2026 at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, and the co-main event is Arman Tsarukyan (23-3-0) against Mauricio Ruffy (14-2-0) at lightweight, scheduled for five rounds.

The card carries 12 bouts in our tables. Five scheduled rounds is the format detail that matters most for the markets: it doubles the time a finish can arrive in and changes what a total-rounds line means. The bout is listed as announced in the PropBetEdge schedule.

The question this preview works through is whether the finishing pattern in our archive makes this a fight that ends early, and what that does to the distance and method markets. PropSports career averages are on file for both fighters.

Tale of the tape

• Record: Arman Tsarukyan 23-3-0 · Mauricio Ruffy 14-2-0
• Age: Arman Tsarukyan 29 · Mauricio Ruffy 30
• Height: Arman Tsarukyan 5'7" · Mauricio Ruffy 5'11"
• Reach: Arman Tsarukyan 72.5" · Mauricio Ruffy 75"
• Stance: Arman Tsarukyan Orthodox · Mauricio Ruffy Orthodox
• Listed weight: Arman Tsarukyan 156 lbs · Mauricio Ruffy 155 lbs

The 2.5-inch reach gap in Mauricio Ruffy's favour (75" to 72.5") is the tape's headline number; it defines the range each man is working from. A reach edge of that size matters more when the longer fighter also sets the pace, and here Ruffy does: 4.19 significant strikes landed per minute against 3.85 for Tsarukyan. Length with output behind it is how rounds get banked from the outside. Both fight orthodox, so lead hands mirror and the rear-hand exchanges are conventional.

Recent form

Arman Tsarukyan has 12 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 10 wins and 2 losses. 5 of those wins came inside the distance (4 by KO/TKO and 1 by submission), a 50% finish rate on archived wins. The losses went to the scorecards. He last fought on Nov 22, 2025 and beat Dan Hooker by submission in round 2. That puts him 301 days out by fight night.

• W vs Dan Hooker — submission, R2 (Nov 22, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker)
• W vs Charles Oliveira — split decision, R3 (Apr 13, 2024, UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill)
• W vs Beneil Dariush — KO/TKO, R1 (Dec 2, 2023, UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan)
• W vs Joaquim Silva — KO/TKO, R3 (Jun 17, 2023, UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier)
• W vs Damir Ismagulov — unanimous decision, R3 (Dec 17, 2022, UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland)

Mauricio Ruffy has 7 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 6 wins and 1 loss. 5 of those wins came inside the distance (5 by KO/TKO), a 83% finish rate on archived wins. He has been finished once in the archive, every loss ending early. He last fought on Jun 15, 2026 and beat Michael Chandler by KO/TKO in round 1. That is 96 days before fight night, a quick turnaround.

• W vs Michael Chandler — KO/TKO, R1 (Jun 15, 2026, UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje)
• W vs Rafael Fiziev — KO/TKO, R2 (Jan 31, 2026, UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2)
• L vs Benoît Saint Denis — submission, R2 (Sep 6, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho)
• W vs King Green — KO/TKO, R1 (Mar 8, 2025, UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev)
• W vs James Llontop — unanimous decision, R3 (Nov 16, 2024, UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic)

Mauricio Ruffy is the more recently active of the two (96 days out against 301 for Tsarukyan). Mauricio Ruffy ends 83% of archived wins early against 50% for Arman Tsarukyan; with Arman Tsarukyan never finished in 12 archived bouts, that asymmetry is the pattern behind the distance and method markets.

Style and statistical matchup

Arman Tsarukyan lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy; Mauricio Ruffy lands 4.19 at 57%. The two are close on volume, so neither side can expect to win rounds on activity alone. On the other side of the exchange, Arman Tsarukyan absorbs 1.8 per minute with 54% striking defence and Mauricio Ruffy absorbs 3.83 with 59%.

On the ground, Arman Tsarukyan averages 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes at 37% accuracy and defends 75% of attempts against him; Mauricio Ruffy averages 0 at 0% and defends 86%. Mauricio Ruffy's 11-point takedown-defence edge is the grappling number to weigh: it limits how often the fight leaves the striking exchanges.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level stats exist for 32 archived rounds of Arman Tsarukyan's: 567 of 1133 significant strikes landed (50%), 17.7 per round, 32 of 85 takedowns, 62:19 of control time and 3 knockdowns. Round-level stats exist for 10 archived rounds of Mauricio Ruffy's: 175 of 307 significant strikes landed (57%), 17.5 per round, 0 of 1 takedowns, 1:55 of control time and 6 knockdowns. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Start with what is missing. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, the finishing pattern is the strongest signal: Mauricio Ruffy 5 of 6 archived wins early. The uncertainty is ordinary fight variance rather than missing data. What to monitor: the five-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the fight goes the distance, total rounds, method of victory and round betting markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy · Full card: UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Fighter pages: Arman Tsarukyan, Mauricio Ruffy.