Borralho’s Ruffy knockout warning sharpens the UFC 331 moneyline split

Mauricio Ruffy’s clearest route to an upset at UFC 331 is also the condition bettors cannot yet quantify: keeping Arman Tsarukyan on the feet long enough to land clean.

MMA Fighting reported that Caio Borralho views Ruffy as the superior threat in open striking and believes Tsarukyan risks a knockout if he engages there. The report said Tsarukyan enters after five consecutive UFC wins, while Ruffy knocked out Rafael Fiziev and Michael Chandler in 2026. Borralho’s tactical qualifier was just as important as his knockout warning: He said wrestling through the first “two or three rounds” could make it harder for Ruffy to preserve his pace, strategy and composure.

That is a conditional prediction, not a blanket endorsement of the underdog. It also lands in a market already offering substantially different payouts on Ruffy depending on the sportsbook.

The upset case depends on where the fight takes place

Borralho’s analysis divides the matchup into two distinct environments. At striking range, Ruffy owns the fight-changing power that produced his two most recent knockouts. If Tsarukyan spends extended periods exchanging, Ruffy gets more opportunities to create the outcome behind Borralho’s warning.

The other environment is a wrestling-heavy fight. Repeated takedown attempts can reduce Ruffy’s time and space to strike, force him to work through defensive sequences and test whether he can maintain the calm Borralho identified as important. That mechanism matters more than the simple contrast between Ruffy’s recent knockouts and Tsarukyan’s winning streak.

For bettors, the key question is not merely whether Ruffy hits harder. It is whether he can make the bout resemble the kind of fight in which that advantage remains available. The packet contains no takedown rates, takedown defence, control time or round-level striking data for either UFC 331 competitor. It therefore cannot establish how frequently Tsarukyan can impose the grappling phase or how Ruffy responds after being forced to wrestle.