Casey O'Neill's finishing rate is the number that matters against Eduarda Moura

The setup

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 lands on Saturday, September 19, 2026 at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, and on the early prelims sits Casey O'Neill (11-2-0) against Eduarda Moura (12-2-0) at women's flyweight, scheduled for three rounds.

The card carries 12 bouts in our tables, with this pairing on the early prelims. The bout is listed as announced in the PropBetEdge schedule.

The question this preview works through is whether the finishing pattern in our archive makes this a fight that ends early, and what that does to the distance and method markets. PropSports career averages are on file for both fighters.

Tale of the tape

• Record: Casey O'Neill 11-2-0 · Eduarda Moura 12-2-0
• Age: Casey O'Neill 28 · Eduarda Moura 32
• Height: Casey O'Neill 5'6" · Eduarda Moura 5'6"
• Reach: Casey O'Neill 69" · Eduarda Moura 67"
• Stance: Casey O'Neill Orthodox · Eduarda Moura Orthodox
• Listed weight: Casey O'Neill 125 lbs · Eduarda Moura 127 lbs

Range is the first thing the tape flags: Casey O'Neill holds 2 inches of reach (69" to 67"), which sets the distance Eduarda Moura has to cross to land. A reach edge of that size matters more when the longer fighter also sets the pace, and here O'Neill does: 7.89 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.57 for Moura. Length with output behind it is how rounds get banked from the outside. Both fight orthodox, so lead hands mirror and the rear-hand exchanges are conventional.

Recent form

Our archive has 8 completed UFC bouts for Casey O'Neill, 6 wins and 2 losses. 4 of those wins came inside the distance (3 by KO/TKO and 1 by submission), a 67% finish rate on archived wins. She has been finished once in the archive. Most recently she beat Gabriella Fernandes by KO/TKO in round 1 on Mar 28, 2026. That puts her 175 days out by fight night.

• W vs Gabriella Fernandes — KO/TKO, R1 (Mar 28, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer)
• W vs Luana Santos — unanimous decision, R3 (Aug 17, 2024, UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya)
• L vs Ariane Lipski da Silva — submission, R2 (Dec 16, 2023, UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington)
• L vs Jennifer Maia — unanimous decision, R3 (Mar 18, 2023, UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3)
• W vs Roxanne Modafferi — split decision, R3 (Feb 12, 2022, UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2)

Our archive has 6 completed UFC bouts for Eduarda Moura, 4 wins and 2 losses. 2 of those wins came inside the distance (1 by KO/TKO and 1 by submission), a 50% finish rate on archived wins. The losses went to the scorecards. She last fought on Feb 7, 2026 and lost to Wang Cong by unanimous decision in round 3. That puts her 224 days out by fight night.

• L vs Wang Cong — unanimous decision, R3 (Feb 7, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira)
• W vs Lauren Murphy — unanimous decision, R3 (Jul 12, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira)
• W vs Veronica Hardy — unanimous decision, R3 (Nov 16, 2024, UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic)
• L vs Denise Gomes — split decision, R3 (Jun 8, 2024, UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov)
• W vs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz — KO/TKO, R2 (Nov 4, 2023, UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis)

Casey O'Neill ends 67% of archived wins early against 50% for Eduarda Moura; with Eduarda Moura never finished in 6 archived bouts, that asymmetry is the pattern behind the distance and method markets.

Style and statistical matchup

Casey O'Neill lands 7.89 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy; Eduarda Moura lands 2.57 at 37%. That 5.32-per-minute gap in Casey O'Neill's favour is a real pace differential: over three rounds it compounds into a scorecard edge unless the lower-volume fighter is landing the more damaging shots. On the other side of the exchange, Casey O'Neill absorbs 5.53 per minute with 57% striking defence and Eduarda Moura absorbs 2.5 with 58%.

On the ground, Casey O'Neill averages 1.4 takedowns per 15 minutes at 34% accuracy and defends 70% of attempts against her; Eduarda Moura averages 3.58 at 34% and defends 80%. Eduarda Moura's 10-point takedown-defence edge is the grappling number to weigh: it limits how often the fight leaves the striking exchanges.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level stats exist for 19 archived rounds of Casey O'Neill's: 677 of 1297 significant strikes landed (52%), 35.6 per round, 8 of 23 takedowns, 21:30 of control time and 1 knockdown. Round-level stats exist for 14 archived rounds of Eduarda Moura's: 177 of 469 significant strikes landed (38%), 12.6 per round, 16 of 48 takedowns, 27:54 of control time. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Start with what is missing. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, the finishing pattern is the strongest signal: Casey O'Neill 4 of 6 archived wins early. The uncertainty is ordinary fight variance rather than missing data. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the fight goes the distance, method of victory and significant strikes markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Casey O'Neill vs. Eduarda Moura · Full card: UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Fighter pages: Casey O'Neill, Eduarda Moura.