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- Keiichiro Nakamura's finishing rate is the number that matters against Ollie Schmid
Keiichiro Nakamura's finishing rate is the number that matters against Ollie Schmid
Does the finishing pattern in our archive make this a fight that ends early? Tale of the tape, form and the distance question for Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady on Nov 7, 2026.
- WSebastian SzalayKO/TKO R3 · Jan 26
- WKaiwen LiU-DEC R3 · Aug 25
- WEoh Jin ParkKO/TKO R2 · May 25
- L
The setup
On Saturday, November 7, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady brings Keiichiro Nakamura (8-1-0) and Ollie Schmid (4-3-0) together at featherweight on the prelims at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, scheduled for three rounds.
Our schedule tables list 13 bouts on the card; this one is filed under the prelims. The bout is listed as announced in the PropBetEdge schedule.
The question this preview works through is whether the finishing pattern in our archive makes this a fight that ends early, and what that does to the distance and method markets. Career-to-date round statistics are on file for Ollie Schmid only.
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Tale of the tape
- Record: Keiichiro Nakamura 8-1-0 · Ollie Schmid 4-3-0
- Age: Keiichiro Nakamura 37 · Ollie Schmid 25
- Height: Keiichiro Nakamura 5'10" · Ollie Schmid 5'11"
- Reach: Keiichiro Nakamura 70" · Ollie Schmid 71"
- Stance: Keiichiro Nakamura Southpaw · Ollie Schmid Orthodox
- Listed weight: Keiichiro Nakamura 145 lbs · Ollie Schmid 145 lbs
Reach is close to even (70" to 71"), so neither fighter starts with a length edge and the striking exchanges begin from the same distance. Ollie Schmid is the younger by 12 years (25 to 37). Age on its own tells you little at this level; it reads better alongside the layoff figures in the form section. It is an southpaw-versus-orthodox pairing: lead legs line up on the outside, which rewards the rear straight and the rear kick and makes the calf-kick battle a live one.
Recent form
Keiichiro Nakamura has 3 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 3 wins. 2 of those wins came inside the distance (2 by KO/TKO), a 67% finish rate on archived wins. Most recently he beat Sebastian Szalay by KO/TKO in round 3 on Jan 31, 2026. That puts him 280 days out by fight night.
- W vs Sebastian Szalay — KO/TKO, R3 (Jan 31, 2026, UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2)
- W vs Kaiwen Li — unanimous decision, R3 (Aug 22, 2025, Road to UFC: Shanghai Episode 5 & 6)
- W vs Eoh Jin Park — KO/TKO, R2 (May 22, 2025, Road to UFC: Shanghai Episode 1)
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