Patricio Pitbull’s UFC 331 Price Hinges on a Narrow Grappling Path Against Doo Ho Choi

Pitbull’s striking numbers make a clean kickboxing fight dangerous

Pitbull is 1-2 across three archived UFC appearances, with all three bouts reaching a decision. He lost to Yair Rodriguez, defeated Dan Ige and then lost to Aaron Pico. He returned against Choi after 162 days away.

His career UFC rates show the central problem: 2.77 significant strikes landed per minute against 4.61 absorbed. His 45 percent striking accuracy is respectable, and his striking defense stands at 55 percent, but the negative volume differential means he has not consistently won exchanges through output.

The round-level sample offers a slightly different view without erasing that concern. Pitbull landed 121 significant strikes across nine rounds at 51 percent accuracy. He directed 78 to the head, 25 to the body and 18 to the legs. Those figures show a head-focused attack rather than a broad attritional game, and he recorded no knockdowns.

Mechanically, that matters for both the moneyline and any significant-strike market. If Pitbull stays at range and allows Choi to set the pace, his recent numbers do not show a reliable volume advantage or proven knockdown threat. The argument against leaning too heavily on that conclusion is sample size: nine UFC rounds cannot define an entire career, and the packet provides no Choi strike totals for a direct comparison.

Takedowns are the underdog’s path, not yet a complete case

Pitbull landed six takedowns in those nine rounds, converting at 46 percent. That is more efficient than his listed career mark of 33 percent and gives him a concrete way to disrupt a striking fight. His broader rate is 1.26 takedowns per 15 minutes, while his own takedown defense sits at 74 percent.

The recent change is important. Pitbull has shown that he will enter on the legs and can finish those attempts against UFC opposition. Takedowns can interrupt Choi’s offense, force resets and create close-round scoring opportunities. That mechanism touches the moneyline, takedown props and decision-related markets.

The limitation is what happened after the entries. Six completed takedowns produced only four total minutes of control, and Pitbull attempted one submission. The data describe disruption more clearly than domination. A takedown that leads to a quick escape may influence a close round, but it does not necessarily keep Pitbull away from the striking exchanges in which his absorption rate becomes a concern.

There is also a decisive unknown: the packet contains no verified Choi takedown-defense rate or round-level grappling data. Without that information, Pitbull’s best path can be identified but not assigned a trustworthy success rate. The wrestling angle is a reason to investigate underdog and takedown markets, not enough evidence to endorse them blindly.

The distance question cuts in both directions

Choi entered with reported knockout momentum, but Pitbull was not finished in any of his three archived UFC bouts. All nine rounds were completed, including both losses. That gives fight-goes-the-distance and total-round bettors a durability signal that runs against the headline created by Choi’s recent finishes.

The caveat is essential. Three fights are not a career-level durability sample, just as Pitbull’s zero percent finish rate on wins is not a meaningful long-term finishing rate when it comes from one UFC victory. His sole win in the archive was a decision, and he produced no knockdowns across the three bouts.

Those facts create competing mechanisms. Choi’s recent results support early-finish interest, while Pitbull’s UFC sample supports the possibility that he can survive and force judges to decide the bout. With no verified total, distance price or Choi round data supplied, there is no defensible prop edge to claim.

At publication, the available report was live coverage rather than a completed official result. That means the result cannot yet validate the knockout narrative, the durability case or Pitbull’s grappling path. Before an outcome is recorded, the strongest betting conclusion is narrow: take the best available moneyline number, recognize that Pitbull likely needs his takedowns to matter, and do not confuse a plausible route with a proven edge.