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Why Serghei Spivac's takedown defence is the key variable against Mario Pinto
Can Serghei Spivac keep the fight standing against Mario Pinto's 2.38 takedowns per 15 minutes? What the tape, the archive and the round statistics say ahead of UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Magomedov on Dec 5, 2026, and which markets the answer touches.
- LVitor PetrinoU-DEC R3 · Aug 26
- WAnte DelijaU-DEC R3 · Feb 26
- LWaldo Cortes AcostaU-DEC R3 · Jun 25
- L
The setup
Serghei Spivac (18-7-0) and Mario Pinto (13-0-0) meet at heavyweight on the main card when UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Magomedov arrives at ANB Arena in Riyadh on Saturday, December 5, 2026, scheduled for three rounds.
The card carries 12 bouts in our tables, with this pairing on the main card. The bout is listed as announced in the PropBetEdge schedule.
The question this preview works through is whether Serghei Spivac can keep the fight where 63% takedown defence says it will struggle to stay, against a 2.38-takedowns-per-15 opponent. Career-to-date round statistics are on file for both fighters, so that comparison is two-sided.
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Tale of the tape
- Record: Serghei Spivac 18-7-0 · Mario Pinto 13-0-0
- Age: Serghei Spivac 31 · Mario Pinto 28
- Height: Serghei Spivac 6'3" · Mario Pinto 6'5"
- Reach: Serghei Spivac 78" · Mario Pinto 79"
- Stance: Serghei Spivac Orthodox · Mario Pinto Orthodox
- Listed weight: Serghei Spivac 257 lbs · Mario Pinto 252 lbs
Reach is close to even (78" to 79"), so neither fighter starts with a length edge and the striking exchanges begin from the same distance. Both fight orthodox, so lead hands mirror and the rear-hand exchanges are conventional. Listed weights differ: Serghei Spivac at 257 lbs to 252 for Mario Pinto. Listed weight is a roster figure, not a weigh-in, so it is a note rather than an edge.
Recent form
Serghei Spivac has 16 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 9 wins and 7 losses. 6 of those wins came inside the distance (3 by KO/TKO and 3 by submission), a 67% finish rate on archived wins. He has been finished 4 times in the archive. Most recently he lost to Vitor Petrino by unanimous decision in round 3 on Aug 22, 2026. That is 105 days before fight night, a quick turnaround.
- L vs Vitor Petrino — unanimous decision, R3 (Aug 22, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues)
- W vs Ante Delija — unanimous decision, R3 (Feb 21, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez)
- L vs Waldo Cortes Acosta — unanimous decision, R3 (Jun 7, 2025, UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2)
- L vs Jailton Almeida — KO/TKO, R1 (Jan 18, 2025, UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano)
- W vs Marcin Tybura — submission, R1 (Aug 10, 2024, UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2)
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