Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui: the reach and pace mismatch bettors should watch

The setup

On Saturday, September 26, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos brings Vanessa Demopoulos (11-8-0) and Yazmin Jauregui (11-2-0) together at women's strawweight on the prelims at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, scheduled for three rounds.

The card carries 11 bouts in our tables, with this pairing on the prelims. The bout is listed as announced in the PropBetEdge schedule.

The question this preview works through is whether Yazmin Jauregui's 5 inches of reach translates into control of range against Vanessa Demopoulos, or whether the archive says Demopoulos closes distance regardless. UFC Stats career averages are on file for both fighters, which sets the limit on how far that read can go.

Tale of the tape

• Record: Vanessa Demopoulos 11-8-0 · Yazmin Jauregui 11-2-0
• Age: Vanessa Demopoulos 38 · Yazmin Jauregui 27
• Height: Vanessa Demopoulos 5'2" · Yazmin Jauregui 5'3"
• Reach: Vanessa Demopoulos 59" · Yazmin Jauregui 64"
• Stance: Vanessa Demopoulos Orthodox · Yazmin Jauregui Orthodox
• Listed weight: Vanessa Demopoulos 126 lbs · Yazmin Jauregui 115 lbs

Range is the first thing the tape flags: Yazmin Jauregui holds 5 inches of reach (64" to 59"), which sets the distance Vanessa Demopoulos has to cross to land. A reach edge of that size matters more when the longer fighter also sets the pace, and here Jauregui does: 6.64 significant strikes landed per minute against 3.37 for Demopoulos. Length with output behind it is how rounds get banked from the outside. Yazmin Jauregui is the younger by 11 years (27 to 38). Age on its own tells you little at this level; it reads better alongside the layoff figures in the form section. Both fight orthodox, so lead hands mirror and the rear-hand exchanges are conventional. Listed weights differ: Vanessa Demopoulos at 126 lbs to 115 for Yazmin Jauregui. Listed weight is a roster figure, not a weigh-in, so it is a note rather than an edge.

Recent form

Vanessa Demopoulos has 11 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 5 wins and 6 losses. 1 of those wins came inside the distance (1 by submission), a 20% finish rate on archived wins. She has been finished once in the archive. Most recently she lost to Jamey-Lyn Horth by unanimous decision in round 3 on Jun 14, 2025. That is 469 days before fight night on our dates, a layoff long enough to count as a variable in its own right.

• L vs Jamey-Lyn Horth — unanimous decision, R3 (Jun 14, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley)
• L vs Talita Alencar — unanimous decision, R3 (Apr 5, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy)
• L vs Jaqueline Amorim — submission, R1 (Sep 7, 2024, UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady)
• W vs Emily Ducote — split decision, R3 (May 18, 2024, UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy)
• W vs Kanako Murata — unanimous decision, R3 (Oct 7, 2023, UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green)

Our archive has 5 completed UFC bouts for Yazmin Jauregui, 3 wins and 2 losses. 1 of those wins came inside the distance (1 by KO/TKO), a 33% finish rate on archived wins. She has been finished twice in the archive, every loss ending early. She last fought on Sep 14, 2024 and lost to Ketlen Souza by submission in round 1. That is 742 days before fight night on our dates, a layoff long enough to count as a variable in its own right.

• L vs Ketlen Souza — submission, R1 (Sep 14, 2024, UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC)
• W vs Sam Hughes — unanimous decision, R3 (Feb 24, 2024, UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2)
• L vs Denise Gomes — KO/TKO, R1 (Jul 8, 2023, UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez)
• W vs Istela Nunes — KO/TKO, R2 (Dec 3, 2022, UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland)
• W vs Iasmin Lucindo — unanimous decision, R3 (Aug 13, 2022, UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz)

Vanessa Demopoulos is the more recently active of the two (469 days out against 742 for Jauregui). Both archives lean toward decisions (20% and 33% of wins finished), which points the other way on the distance question.

Style and statistical matchup

Vanessa Demopoulos lands 3.37 significant strikes per minute at 39% accuracy; Yazmin Jauregui lands 6.64 at 39%. That 3.27-per-minute gap in Yazmin Jauregui's favour is a real pace differential: over three rounds it compounds into a scorecard edge unless the lower-volume fighter is landing the more damaging shots. On the other side of the exchange, Vanessa Demopoulos absorbs 5.39 per minute with 41% striking defence and Yazmin Jauregui absorbs 5.25 with 54%. Yazmin Jauregui's 13-point defence edge is the number to hold against the pace figures: it decides how much of the opponent's output actually lands.

On the ground, Vanessa Demopoulos averages 0.32 takedowns per 15 minutes at 9% accuracy and defends 26% of attempts against her; Yazmin Jauregui averages 0 at 0% and defends 100%. Neither fighter wrestles much by the averages, which points to a fight decided on the feet and makes the striking figures above the ones that matter.

All of these are career-to-date UFC Stats snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level UFC Stats exist for 29 archived rounds of Vanessa Demopoulos's: 475 of 1189 significant strikes landed (40%), 16.4 per round, 3 of 31 takedowns, 16:09 of control time and 1 knockdown. Round-level UFC Stats exist for 10 archived rounds of Yazmin Jauregui's: 282 of 715 significant strikes landed (39%), 28.2 per round, 0 of 5 takedowns, 3:03 of control time and 2 knockdowns. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Start with what is missing. Vanessa Demopoulos will have been out 469 days by fight night on our archive dates: a long layoff the averages cannot price. Yazmin Jauregui will have been out 742 days by fight night on our archive dates: a long layoff the averages cannot price. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, Yazmin Jauregui's 5 inches of reach is the one material physical edge, and what it is worth depends on pace figures our tables do hold. The uncertainty is ordinary fight variance rather than missing data. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the moneyline, fight goes the distance, method of victory and significant strikes markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui · Full card: UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · Fighter pages: Vanessa Demopoulos, Yazmin Jauregui.