Yousri Belgaroui's finishing rate is the number that matters against Djorden Santos

The setup

On Saturday, September 12, 2026, Noche UFC brings Yousri Belgaroui (10-3-0) and Djorden Santos (11-3-0) together at middleweight on the prelims at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, scheduled for three rounds.

The card carries 9 bouts in our tables, with this pairing on the prelims. The bout is listed as announced in the PropBetEdge schedule.

The question this preview works through is whether Yousri Belgaroui's 3.5 inches of reach translates into control of range against Djorden Santos, or whether the archive says Santos closes distance regardless. PropSports career averages are on file for both fighters, which sets the limit on how far that read can go.

Tale of the tape

• Record: Yousri Belgaroui 10-3-0 · Djorden Santos 11-3-0
• Age: Yousri Belgaroui 34 · Djorden Santos 29
• Height: Yousri Belgaroui 6'6" · Djorden Santos 6'0"
• Reach: Yousri Belgaroui 79" · Djorden Santos 75.5"
• Stance: Yousri Belgaroui Orthodox · Djorden Santos Orthodox
• Listed weight: Yousri Belgaroui 185 lbs · Djorden Santos 186 lbs

The 3.5-inch reach gap in Yousri Belgaroui's favour (79" to 75.5") is the tape's headline number; it defines the range each man is working from. A reach edge matters most when the longer fighter also sets the pace, and here the numbers cut the other way: Djorden Santos out-lands Belgaroui 6.64 to 6.1 per minute, so the shorter fighter is the busier one and has to cross the gap to do it. That is a different fight from a long fighter picking apart a passive one. Djorden Santos is the younger by 5 years (29 to 34). Age on its own tells you little at this level; it reads better alongside the layoff figures in the form section. Both fight orthodox, so lead hands mirror and the rear-hand exchanges are conventional.

Recent form

Our archive has 4 completed UFC bouts for Yousri Belgaroui, 3 wins and 1 loss. Every one of them came inside the distance (3 by KO/TKO). The loss went to the scorecards. Most recently he beat Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO in round 3 on Mar 28, 2026. That puts him 168 days out by fight night.

• W vs Mansur Abdul-Malik — KO/TKO, R3 (Mar 28, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer)
• W vs Azamat Bekoev — KO/TKO, R3 (Oct 18, 2025, UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen)
• W vs Taiga Iwasaki — KO/TKO, R3 (Sep 11, 2024, Dana White's Contender Series: Season 8, Week 5)
• L vs Marco Tulio — unanimous decision, R3 (Aug 30, 2023, Dana White's Contender Series: Season 7, Week 4)

Djorden Santos has 4 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 2 wins and 2 losses. None of those wins came inside the distance, a pattern that leans toward the judges. He has been finished once in the archive. Most recently he lost to Baisangur Susurkaev by submission in round 3 on May 9, 2026. That puts him 126 days out by fight night.

• L vs Baisangur Susurkaev — submission, R3 (May 9, 2026, UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland)
• W vs Danny Barlow — unanimous decision, R3 (Oct 18, 2025, UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen)
• L vs Ozzy Diaz — unanimous decision, R3 (Mar 8, 2025, UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev)
• W vs Will Currie — unanimous decision, R3 (Sep 4, 2024, Dana White's Contender Series: Season 8, Week 4)

Yousri Belgaroui ends 100% of archived wins early against 0% for Djorden Santos; with Djorden Santos finished once in 4 archived bouts, that asymmetry is the pattern behind the distance and method markets.

Style and statistical matchup

Yousri Belgaroui lands 6.1 significant strikes per minute at 64% accuracy; Djorden Santos lands 6.64 at 42%. The two are close on volume, so neither side can expect to win rounds on activity alone. On the other side of the exchange, Yousri Belgaroui absorbs 2.17 per minute with 64% striking defence and Djorden Santos absorbs 6.35 with 48%. Yousri Belgaroui is the harder fighter to hit on both measures, which is the profile that makes an opponent's volume less useful than it looks.

On the ground, Yousri Belgaroui averages 0.29 takedowns per 15 minutes at 100% accuracy and defends 67% of attempts against him; Djorden Santos averages 0.51 at 28% and defends 85%. Neither fighter wrestles much by the averages, which points to a fight decided on the feet and makes the striking figures above the ones that matter.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level stats exist for 9 archived rounds of Yousri Belgaroui's: 229 of 363 significant strikes landed (63%), 25.4 per round, 1 of 1 takedowns, 3:04 of control time and 2 knockdowns. Round-level stats exist for 9 archived rounds of Djorden Santos's: 308 of 772 significant strikes landed (40%), 34.2 per round, 1 of 5 takedowns, 2:42 of control time. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Here is where the read could be wrong. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, Yousri Belgaroui's 3.5 inches of reach is the one material physical edge, and what it is worth depends on pace figures our tables do hold. The uncertainty is ordinary fight variance rather than missing data. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the fight goes the distance, method of victory and significant strikes markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Djorden Santos · Full card: Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · Fighter pages: Yousri Belgaroui, Djorden Santos.