Distance: 4-inch reach difference
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The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Two grapplers by the numbers (2.5 and 2.9 takedowns per 15). Whoever wins the first clinch battle sets the terms for the rest.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 2.9 takedowns / 15 vs 62% defense
| Attribute | Campbell | Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 27 | 29 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 5′10″ |
| Reach | 72.5″ | 71″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Duncan averages 2.9 takedowns per 15 minutes; Campbell has stopped 62% of attempts on record.
Favors Campbell5.2 and 4.8 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (51% vs 45%) decides the exchanges.
Watch the first takedown attempt from Campbell: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Campbell keeps landing takedowns at 2.5 per 15 minutes; if Duncan stays upright, the striking rates (5.2 vs 4.8 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
