Pace: 4.1 vs 2.1 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.2 vs 2 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (4 vs 2.5 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Ellenberger finished 4× on record
| Attribute | Thompson | Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 30 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 71″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Ellenberger has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 2.8 strikes per minute; Thompson has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors ThompsonThompson holds a 4-inch reach edge (75" to 71"); Ellenberger has to cross distance to land.
Favors ThompsonEllenberger has 1 archived five-round fight to Thompson’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors EllenbergerWatch the first takedown attempt from Ellenberger: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Ellenberger keeps landing takedowns at 2 per 15 minutes; if Thompson stays upright, the striking rates (4 vs 2.5 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
