Distance: 8-inch reach difference
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The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Schaub's wrestling (2.3 takedowns per 15) against Nelson's striking is the central exchange: Nelson stops 65% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 5-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Nelson | Schaub |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 26 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 6′4″ |
| Reach | 73″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Schaub holds a 5-inch reach edge (78" to 73"); Nelson has to cross distance to land.
Favors SchaubSchaub averages 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Nelson has stopped 65% of attempts on record.
Favors Nelson2.2 and 2.9 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (36% vs 37%) decides the exchanges.
Watch the first takedown attempt from Schaub: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Schaub keeps landing takedowns at 2.3 per 15 minutes; if Nelson stays upright, the striking rates (2.2 vs 2.9 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
