Grappling: 1.7 takedowns / 15 vs 0% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (1.1 vs 2.9 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (4.6 vs 1.9 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (82% vs 11% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 6-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Diaz | Maynard |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 34 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Diaz holds a 6-inch reach edge (76" to 70"); Maynard has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors DiazDiaz lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute to Maynard’s 1.9: a real volume gap.
Favors DiazMaynard averages 2.9 takedowns per 15 minutes; Diaz has stopped 41% of attempts on record.
Favors DiazWatch the first takedown attempt from Maynard: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Maynard keeps landing takedowns at 2.9 per 15 minutes; if Diaz stays upright, the striking rates (4.6 vs 1.9 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
