Grappling: 1.8 takedowns / 15 vs 62% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (42% vs 0% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Two grapplers by the numbers (3.4 and 3.6 takedowns per 15). Whoever wins the first clinch battle sets the terms for the rest.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 10 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Johnson | Elliott |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 29 |
| Height | 5′3″ | 5′7″ |
| Reach | 66″ | 66″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | #11 Flyweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Johnson has 10 archived five-round fights to Elliott’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors JohnsonElliott averages 3.6 takedowns per 15 minutes; Johnson has stopped 65% of attempts on record.
Favors JohnsonElliott has been finished 1 time in the archive and absorbs 3 strikes per minute; Johnson has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors JohnsonWatch the first takedown attempt from Johnson: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Johnson keeps landing takedowns at 3.4 per 15 minutes; if Elliott stays upright, the striking rates (3.4 vs 3.5 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
