Grappling: 3.9 takedowns / 15 vs 53% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.9 vs 0.9 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3.9 takedowns / 15 vs 45% defense
| Attribute | Coleman | Frye |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 30 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 75″ | Not published |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Coleman averages 3.9 takedowns per 15 minutes; Frye has stopped 45% of attempts on record.
Favors FryeFrye has finished 100% of archived wins (4 KO/TKO, 0 submission), 4 of them inside round one in the last 4.
Favors Frye1.9 and 2.9 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (52% vs 64%) decides the exchanges.
Frye has 4 first-round finishes in the last 4 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Coleman keeps landing takedowns at 3.9 per 15 minutes; if Frye stays upright, the striking rates (1.9 vs 2.9 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.