Danger zone: 3 recent R1 finishes
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3 vs 1 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (2.1 vs 3.9 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (50% vs 100% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3 takedowns / 15 vs 70% defense
| Attribute | Evans | Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 27 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Evans averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Silva has stopped 70% of attempts on record.
Favors SilvaSilva lands 3.9 significant strikes per minute to Evans’ 2.1: a real volume gap.
Favors SilvaSilva has finished 100% of archived wins (5 KO/TKO, 0 submission), 3 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors SilvaSilva has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Evans keeps landing takedowns at 3 per 15 minutes; if Silva stays upright, the striking rates (2.1 vs 3.9 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
