Experience: 3 vs 0 five-round fights
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (4.2 vs 0.7 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (3.8 vs 2.5 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 8 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | St-Pierre | Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 27 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 6′0″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
St-Pierre has 8 archived five-round fights to Hardy’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors St-PierreSt-Pierre averages 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Hardy has stopped 35% of attempts on record.
Favors HardySt-Pierre lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute to Hardy’s 2.5: a real volume gap.
Favors St-PierreWatch the first takedown attempt from St-Pierre: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether St-Pierre keeps landing takedowns at 4.2 per 15 minutes; if Hardy stays upright, the striking rates (3.8 vs 2.5 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
