Distance: 7-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
The stored career numbers do not draw a sharp contrast between these two, which usually means the fight is decided by adjustments rather than a single dominant phase.
Supporting evidenceDanger zone: 4 recent R1 finishes
| Attribute | Santos | Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 27 | 36 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 80″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Carwin has finished 100% of archived wins (4 KO/TKO, 0 submission), 4 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors CarwinCarwin holds a 3-inch reach edge (80" to 77"); Santos has to cross distance to land.
Favors CarwinCarwin has been finished 1 time in the archive and absorbs 3.5 strikes per minute; Santos has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors SantosCarwin has 4 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
With the stored numbers close, the middle rounds come down to adjustments: who solves the opening read first, with strike defense at 56% and 53%.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
