Grappling: 2.3 takedowns / 15 vs 55% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (5.7 vs 2.8 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 6-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Diaz | Penn |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 32 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Diaz holds a 6-inch reach edge (76" to 70"); Penn has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors DiazDiaz lands 5.7 significant strikes per minute to Penn’s 2.8: a real volume gap.
Favors DiazDiaz has finished 100% of archived wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submission).
Favors DiazWho sets the range in round one: Diaz holds the longer reach, so early success for the shorter fighter usually requires feints and fast entries.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Diaz averages 5.7 landed per minute to Penn at 2.8, so Penn needs the counters to land clean (48% accuracy on record).
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
