Grappling: 2.9 takedowns / 15 vs 0% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.9 vs 3.9 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (0.4 vs 1.9 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3.9 takedowns / 15 vs 20% defense
| Attribute | Smith | Coleman |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 35 | 32 |
| Height | 6′2″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | Not published | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Coleman averages 3.9 takedowns per 15 minutes; Smith has stopped 20% of attempts on record.
Favors SmithColeman has 2 archived five-round fights to Smith’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors ColemanColeman has finished 100% of archived wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submission), 5 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors ColemanColeman has 5 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Coleman keeps landing takedowns at 3.9 per 15 minutes; if Smith stays upright, the striking rates (0.4 vs 1.9 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
