Durability: Mir finished 5× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (4.4 vs 2.6 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Opposite stances create an open-side geometry from the first exchange — lead-foot position and the rear-hand lane matter more than usual.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 10-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Jones | Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 24 | 33 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 84″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Jones holds a 10-inch reach edge (84" to 74"); Machida has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors JonesJones lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute to Machida’s 2.6: a real volume gap.
Favors JonesJones has finished 75% of archived wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors JonesJones has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Jones averages 4.4 landed per minute to Machida at 2.6, so Machida needs the counters to land clean (53% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
