Distance: 4-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.5 vs 4.1 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 4.1 takedowns / 15 vs 92% defense
| Attribute | Aldo | Mendes |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 26 |
| Height | 5′7″ | 5′6″ |
| Reach | 70″ | 66″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Mendes averages 4.1 takedowns per 15 minutes; Aldo has stopped 92% of attempts on record.
Favors AldoAldo holds a 4-inch reach edge (70" to 66"); Mendes has to cross distance to land.
Favors AldoAldo has 2 archived five-round fights to Mendes’ 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors AldoWatch the first takedown attempt from Mendes: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Mendes keeps landing takedowns at 4.1 per 15 minutes; if Aldo stays upright, the striking rates (3.6 vs 2.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
