Pace: 3.8 vs 2.1 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (4.4 vs 2.1 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (78% vs 42% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Evans's wrestling (3 takedowns per 15) against Jones's striking is the central exchange: Jones stops 95% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 9-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Jones | Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 24 | 32 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′0″ |
| Reach | 84″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Jones holds a 9-inch reach edge (84" to 75"); Evans has to cross distance to land.
Favors JonesJones lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute to Evans’ 2.1: a real volume gap.
Favors JonesEvans averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Jones has stopped 95% of attempts on record.
Favors JonesWatch the first takedown attempt from Evans: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Evans keeps landing takedowns at 3 per 15 minutes; if Jones stays upright, the striking rates (4.4 vs 2.1 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
