Grappling: 3 takedowns / 15 vs 62% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.5 vs 2.3 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 6 vs 3 five-round fights
| Attribute | Aldo | Edgar |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 26 | 31 |
| Height | 5′7″ | 5′6″ |
| Reach | 70″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Edgar has 6 archived five-round fights to Aldo’s 3; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors EdgarEdgar averages 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Aldo has stopped 92% of attempts on record.
Favors AldoAldo holds a 2-inch reach edge (70" to 68"); Edgar has to cross distance to land.
Favors AldoWatch the first takedown attempt from Edgar: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Edgar keeps landing takedowns at 2.3 per 15 minutes; if Aldo stays upright, the striking rates (3.6 vs 3.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
