Pace: 4.3 vs 2.7 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (1.9 vs 3.8 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (4.4 vs 3.1 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (73% vs 17% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 11-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Jones | Sonnen |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 36 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 84″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Jones holds a 11-inch reach edge (84" to 73"); Sonnen has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors JonesSonnen has been finished 5 times in the archive and absorbs 1.1 strikes per minute; Jones has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors JonesSonnen averages 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes; Jones has stopped 95% of attempts on record.
Favors JonesWatch the first takedown attempt from Sonnen: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Sonnen keeps landing takedowns at 3.8 per 15 minutes; if Jones stays upright, the striking rates (4.4 vs 3.1 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
