Distance: 7-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Evans's wrestling (3 takedowns per 15) against Henderson's striking is the central exchange: Henderson stops 57% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3 takedowns / 15 vs 57% defense
| Attribute | Evans | Henderson |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 42 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 5′11″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Evans averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Henderson has stopped 57% of attempts on record.
Favors HendersonEvans has 16 archived bouts to Henderson’s 9: the deeper book of tape belongs to Evans.
Favors EvansEvans has been finished 1 time in the archive and absorbs 2.4 strikes per minute.
Favors HendersonWatch the first takedown attempt from Evans: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Evans keeps landing takedowns at 3 per 15 minutes; if Henderson stays upright, the striking rates (2.1 vs 2.4 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
