Pace: 4.3 vs 2.4 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (5.1 vs 3.8 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 4 vs 1 five-round fights
| Attribute | Dillashaw | Barao |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 27 |
| Height | 5′6″ | 5′6″ |
| Reach | 67″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Barao has 4 archived five-round fights to Dillashaw’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors BaraoBarao holds a 3-inch reach edge (70" to 67"); Dillashaw has to cross distance to land.
Favors BaraoDillashaw lands 5.1 significant strikes per minute to Barao’s 3.8: a real volume gap.
Favors DillashawDillashaw has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Dillashaw averages 5.1 landed per minute to Barao at 3.8, so Barao needs the counters to land clean (36% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
