Grappling: 6.3 takedowns / 15 vs 34% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.3 vs 1.2 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 6 vs 3 five-round fights
| Attribute | Weidman | Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 36 |
| Height | 6′2″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 78″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Machida has 6 archived five-round fights to Weidman’s 3; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors MachidaWeidman holds a 4-inch reach edge (78" to 74"); Machida has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors WeidmanWeidman averages 3.3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Machida has stopped 75% of attempts on record.
Favors MachidaWatch the first takedown attempt from Weidman: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Weidman keeps landing takedowns at 3.3 per 15 minutes; if Machida stays upright, the striking rates (3.1 vs 2.6 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
