Grappling: 3 takedowns / 15 vs 60% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.5 vs 4.1 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 6 vs 1 five-round fights
| Attribute | Aldo | Mendes |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 29 |
| Height | 5′7″ | 5′6″ |
| Reach | 70″ | 66″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Aldo has 6 archived five-round fights to Mendes’ 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors AldoMendes averages 4.1 takedowns per 15 minutes; Aldo has stopped 92% of attempts on record.
Favors AldoAldo holds a 4-inch reach edge (70" to 66"); Mendes has to cross distance to land.
Favors AldoMendes has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Mendes keeps landing takedowns at 4.1 per 15 minutes; if Aldo stays upright, the striking rates (3.6 vs 2.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
