Distance: 4-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (1.8 vs 5.1 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (3.6 vs 6.4 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 5.1 takedowns / 15 vs 31% defense
| Attribute | Werdum | Velasquez |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 37 | 32 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 77″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Velasquez averages 5.1 takedowns per 15 minutes; Werdum has stopped 31% of attempts on record.
Favors WerdumVelasquez lands 6.4 significant strikes per minute to Werdum’s 3.6: a real volume gap.
Favors VelasquezVelasquez has 5 archived five-round fights to Werdum’s 3; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors VelasquezVelasquez has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Velasquez keeps landing takedowns at 5.1 per 15 minutes; if Werdum stays upright, the striking rates (3.6 vs 6.4 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
