Experience: 12 vs 0 five-round fights
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.4 vs 3.2 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3.2 takedowns / 15 vs 66% defense
| Attribute | Ferguson | Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 25 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 77″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Lee averages 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Ferguson has stopped 66% of attempts on record.
Favors Ferguson4.9 and 3.9 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (45% vs 42%) decides the exchanges.
Ferguson has finished 67% of archived wins (3 KO/TKO, 5 submission).
Favors FergusonLee has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Lee keeps landing takedowns at 3.2 per 15 minutes; if Ferguson stays upright, the striking rates (4.9 vs 3.9 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
