Grappling: 4.2 takedowns / 15 vs 0% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.3 vs 2.5 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (4.8 vs 2.6 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidencePace: 4.8 vs 2.6 landed / min
| Attribute | Shamrock | Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 26 | 24 |
| Height | 5′10″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | Not published | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Shamrock lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute to Ortiz’s 2.6: a real volume gap.
Favors ShamrockShamrock has 4 archived five-round fights to Ortiz’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors ShamrockShamrock has finished 100% of archived wins (1 KO/TKO, 3 submission), 3 of them inside round one in the last 4.
Favors ShamrockShamrock has 3 first-round finishes in the last 4 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Ortiz keeps landing takedowns at 2.5 per 15 minutes; if Shamrock stays upright, the striking rates (4.8 vs 2.6 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
