Experience: 7 vs 2 five-round fights
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.2 vs 1.6 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (2.3 vs 6 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidencePace: 6 vs 2.3 landed / min
| Attribute | Makhachev | Volkanovski |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 34 |
| Height | 5′10″ | 5′6″ |
| Reach | 70.5″ | 71.5″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | #1 Men's Pound-for-Pound | #2 Men's Pound-for-Pound |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Volkanovski lands 6 significant strikes per minute to Makhachev’s 2.3: a real volume gap.
Favors VolkanovskiMakhachev averages 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Volkanovski has stopped 68% of attempts on record.
Favors VolkanovskiVolkanovski has 5 archived five-round fights to Makhachev’s 3; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors VolkanovskiMakhachev has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Makhachev keeps landing takedowns at 3.2 per 15 minutes; if Volkanovski stays upright, the striking rates (2.3 vs 6 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
