Experience: 7 vs 2 five-round fights
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.2 vs 1.1 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (2.3 vs 5.2 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 13 vs 5 five-round fights
| Attribute | Makhachev | Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 35 |
| Height | 5′10″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 70.5″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Rank | #1 Men's Pound-for-Pound | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Poirier has 13 archived five-round fights to Makhachev’s 5; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors PoirierPoirier has been finished 6 times in the archive and absorbs 4.6 strikes per minute.
Favors MakhachevPoirier lands 5.2 significant strikes per minute to Makhachev’s 2.3: a real volume gap.
Favors PoirierMakhachev has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Makhachev keeps landing takedowns at 3.2 per 15 minutes; if Poirier stays upright, the striking rates (2.3 vs 5.2 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
