Grappling: 6.5 takedowns / 15 vs 44% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (1.9 vs 5.3 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (5.2 vs 4 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 5.3 takedowns / 15 vs 50% defense
| Attribute | Plessis | Chimaev |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 31 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Rank | #2 Middleweight | #1 Middleweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Chimaev averages 5.3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Plessis has stopped 50% of attempts on record.
Favors PlessisChimaev has finished 75% of archived wins (2 KO/TKO, 4 submission), 3 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors ChimaevPlessis lands 5.2 significant strikes per minute to Chimaev’s 4: a real volume gap.
Favors PlessisChimaev has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Chimaev keeps landing takedowns at 5.3 per 15 minutes; if Plessis stays upright, the striking rates (5.2 vs 4 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
