Experience: 15 vs 8 five-round fights
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.3 vs 3.2 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (5.3 vs 2.3 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 7 vs 1 five-round fights
| Attribute | Maddalena | Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 34 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 5′10″ |
| Reach | 73″ | 70.5″ |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Rank | #4 Welterweight | Welterweight Champion |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Makhachev has 7 archived five-round fights to Maddalena’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors MakhachevMaddalena lands 5.3 significant strikes per minute to Makhachev’s 2.3: a real volume gap.
Favors MaddalenaMakhachev averages 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Maddalena has stopped 64% of attempts on record.
Favors MaddalenaMakhachev has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Makhachev keeps landing takedowns at 3.2 per 15 minutes; if Maddalena stays upright, the striking rates (5.3 vs 2.3 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
