Experience: 9 vs 2 five-round fights
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Oliveira's wrestling (2.3 takedowns per 15) against Lopes's striking is the central exchange: Lopes stops 68% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 10 vs 3 five-round fights
| Attribute | Oliveira | Lopes |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 37 | 31 |
| Height | 5′10″ | 5′11″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 72.5″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #3 Lightweight | #2 Featherweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Oliveira has 10 archived five-round fights to Lopes’ 3; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors OliveiraOliveira has been finished 9 times in the archive and absorbs 3 strikes per minute; Lopes has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors LopesOliveira averages 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Lopes has stopped 68% of attempts on record.
Favors LopesWatch the first takedown attempt from Oliveira: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Oliveira keeps landing takedowns at 2.3 per 15 minutes; if Lopes stays upright, the striking rates (3.2 vs 3.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
