Pace: 4.1 vs 0.4 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (4.2 vs 2 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (3.8 vs 2 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 8-inch reach difference
| Attribute | St-Pierre | Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 26 | 33 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 5′6″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
St-Pierre holds a 8-inch reach edge (76" to 68"); Serra has to cross distance to land.
Favors St-PierreSt-Pierre averages 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Serra has stopped 38% of attempts on record.
Favors SerraSt-Pierre lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute to Serra’s 2: a real volume gap.
Favors St-PierreWatch the first takedown attempt from St-Pierre: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether St-Pierre keeps landing takedowns at 4.2 per 15 minutes; if Serra stays upright, the striking rates (3.8 vs 2 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
