Grappling: 3.9 takedowns / 15 vs 32% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Two grapplers by the numbers (4.2 and 3.6 takedowns per 15). Whoever wins the first clinch battle sets the terms for the rest.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 5 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | St-Pierre | Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 27 | 30 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 6′0″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
St-Pierre has 5 archived five-round fights to Fitch’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors St-PierreSt-Pierre averages 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Fitch has stopped 56% of attempts on record.
Favors FitchSt-Pierre has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 1.4 strikes per minute; Fitch has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors FitchWatch the first takedown attempt from St-Pierre: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether St-Pierre keeps landing takedowns at 4.2 per 15 minutes; if Fitch stays upright, the striking rates (3.8 vs 2.6 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
