Danger zone: 2 recent R1 finishes
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.5 vs 2.1 takedowns per 15) and a finishing gap (100% vs 60% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 5 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Silva | Leites |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 27 |
| Height | 6′2″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Silva has 5 archived five-round fights to Leites’ 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors SilvaSilva has finished 100% of archived wins (6 KO/TKO, 2 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors SilvaLeites averages 2.1 takedowns per 15 minutes; Silva has stopped 69% of attempts on record.
Favors SilvaLeites has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Leites keeps landing takedowns at 2.1 per 15 minutes; if Silva stays upright, the striking rates (3 vs 2.1 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
