Grappling: 11.1 takedowns / 15 vs 71% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (4 vs 5.5 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 15 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Adesanya | Magomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 37 | 32 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 80″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Rank | #9 Middleweight | #15 Middleweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Adesanya has 15 archived five-round fights to Magomedov’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors AdesanyaAdesanya holds a 7-inch reach edge (80" to 73"); Magomedov has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors AdesanyaAdesanya has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 3.2 strikes per minute; Magomedov has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors MagomedovWho sets the range in round one: Adesanya holds the longer reach, so early success for the shorter fighter usually requires feints and fast entries.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Magomedov averages 5.5 landed per minute to Adesanya at 4, so Adesanya needs the counters to land clean (48% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
