Grappling: 2.6 takedowns / 15 vs 59% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Costa's wrestling (2 takedowns per 15) against Allen's striking is the central exchange: Allen stops 73% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 2 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Allen | Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 29 |
| Height | 5′8″ | 5′10″ |
| Reach | 70″ | 71″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Rank | #7 Featherweight | #12 Featherweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Allen has 2 archived five-round fights to Costa’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors AllenCosta has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 3 strikes per minute; Allen has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors AllenCosta averages 2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Allen has stopped 73% of attempts on record.
Favors AllenCosta has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Costa keeps landing takedowns at 2 per 15 minutes; if Allen stays upright, the striking rates (3.5 vs 4.4 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
