Danger zone: 3 recent R1 finishes
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (5.6 vs 0.5 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 10 vs 1 five-round fights
| Attribute | Almeida | Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 38 |
| Height | 6′3″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 79″ | 79″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | #12 Heavyweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Lewis has 10 archived five-round fights to Almeida’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors LewisLewis has been finished 9 times in the archive and absorbs 2.8 strikes per minute; Almeida has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors AlmeidaAlmeida averages 5.6 takedowns per 15 minutes; Lewis has stopped 51% of attempts on record.
Favors LewisAlmeida has 4 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Almeida keeps landing takedowns at 5.6 per 15 minutes; if Lewis stays upright, the striking rates (2.2 vs 2.4 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
