Durability: Swanson finished 4× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.2 vs 0.4 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3.2 takedowns / 15 vs 73% defense
| Attribute | Lee | Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 32 |
| Height | 5′9″ | 5′11″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Lee averages 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Barboza has stopped 73% of attempts on record.
Favors BarbozaBarboza has been finished 3 times in the archive and absorbs 4.8 strikes per minute.
Favors LeeLee has 2 archived five-round fights to Barboza’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors LeeLee has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Lee keeps landing takedowns at 3.2 per 15 minutes; if Barboza stays upright, the striking rates (3.9 vs 4.2 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
