Distance: 5-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (100% vs 17% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Opposite stances create an open-side geometry from the first exchange — lead-foot position and the rear-hand lane matter more than usual.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Belfort finished 4× on record
| Attribute | Belfort | Henderson |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 36 | 43 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 5′11″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Belfort has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 2.8 strikes per minute.
Favors HendersonBelfort has 6 archived five-round fights to Henderson’s 4; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors BelfortBelfort has finished 100% of archived wins (10 KO/TKO, 2 submission), 3 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors BelfortBelfort has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
With the stored numbers close, the middle rounds come down to adjustments: who solves the opening read first, with strike defense at 50% and 51%.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
