Durability: Rua finished 6× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (1 vs 2.6 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 6-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Blachowicz | Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 36 | 39 |
| Height | 6′2″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 78″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #9 Light Heavyweight | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Blachowicz holds a 6-inch reach edge (78" to 72"); Souza has to cross distance to land.
Favors BlachowiczSouza averages 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes; Blachowicz has stopped 70% of attempts on record.
Favors BlachowiczSouza has 3 archived five-round fights to Blachowicz’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors SouzaWatch the first takedown attempt from Souza: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Souza keeps landing takedowns at 2.6 per 15 minutes; if Blachowicz stays upright, the striking rates (3.5 vs 2.5 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
