Durability: Hermansson finished 3× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (5.1 vs 2.6 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (4.2 vs 7.6 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (55% vs 100% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 5 vs 1 five-round fights
| Attribute | Blaydes | Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 29 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′5″ |
| Reach | 80″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #5 Heavyweight | #1 Heavyweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Blaydes has 5 archived five-round fights to Aspinall’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors BlaydesAspinall lands 7.6 significant strikes per minute to Blaydes’ 4.2: a real volume gap.
Favors AspinallBlaydes averages 5.1 takedowns per 15 minutes; Aspinall has stopped 100% of attempts on record.
Favors AspinallAspinall has 4 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Blaydes keeps landing takedowns at 5.1 per 15 minutes; if Aspinall stays upright, the striking rates (4.2 vs 7.6 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
