Pace: 4.4 vs 2.7 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.5 vs 5.1 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (2.4 vs 4.2 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Lewis finished 5× on record
| Attribute | Lewis | Blaydes |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 36 | 30 |
| Height | 6′3″ | 6′4″ |
| Reach | 79″ | 80″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #12 Heavyweight | #5 Heavyweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Lewis has been finished 5 times in the archive and absorbs 2.8 strikes per minute.
Favors BlaydesBlaydes averages 5.1 takedowns per 15 minutes; Lewis has stopped 51% of attempts on record.
Favors LewisLewis has 6 archived five-round fights to Blaydes’ 3; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors LewisWatch the first takedown attempt from Blaydes: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Blaydes keeps landing takedowns at 5.1 per 15 minutes; if Lewis stays upright, the striking rates (2.4 vs 4.2 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
