The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Two grapplers by the numbers (2.6 and 3.6 takedowns per 15). Whoever wins the first clinch battle sets the terms for the rest.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3.6 takedowns / 15 vs 78% defense
| Attribute | Bonfim | Brady |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 33 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 5′10″ |
| Reach | 72.5″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #5 Welterweight | #6 Welterweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Brady averages 3.6 takedowns per 15 minutes; Bonfim has stopped 78% of attempts on record.
Favors BonfimBrady has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 2.8 strikes per minute.
Favors Bonfim4.8 and 4.1 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (47% vs 53%) decides the exchanges.
Watch the first takedown attempt from Bonfim: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Bonfim keeps landing takedowns at 2.6 per 15 minutes; if Brady stays upright, the striking rates (4.8 vs 4.1 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
